Our team had the privilege of attending Compass’s 2026 NorCal Kickoff in San Francisco a few weeks ago. The data we got was incredible… here is what we learned.

First: Silicon Valley real estate is not crashing.

After looking at 10 years of data, the bigger story is clear — home values in key Santa Clara County luxury markets are still dramatically higher than they were in 2015. The market has grown significantly over time.

That said, 2025 showed some shifts.

In the cities highlighted — Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Palo Alto, Saratoga, Los Altos, and Los Altos Hills — median single-family prices remain substantially above 2015 levels.

In 2025, median prices were roughly:
• $3.29M in Los Gatos/Monte Sereno
• $3.80M in Palo Alto
• $4.30M in Saratoga
• $4.85M in Los Altos
• $5.53M in Los Altos Hills

Luxury markets told a more detailed story. In Los Altos Hills, prices dipped slightly from 2024 to 2025 — and the median home size declined by about 5%. When smaller homes sell, the overall median price can shift downward. That doesn’t necessarily mean property values are falling across the board.

The big takeaway?

The market is adjusting, not collapsing. We’re moving into a more balanced environment after the intense pandemic years. Some segments are softening. Others remain competitive. And as always in Silicon Valley, real estate is hyper-local.

For homeowners, this kind of long-term growth can help put your equity in perspective as you consider your next move. For buyers, purchasing in these areas has historically been supported by strong appreciation and can be a meaningful investment in your future.